Daily Trading Journal 9/2/14

Today the major indices saw an uptick in volatility and closed mixed on the day after a choppy session. Small caps and the Nasdaq 100 led while the Dow and S&P 500 closed slightly down on the day. The bias remains neutral/higher as we remain above a rising 10 day SMA in all the indexes, but a a more tactical approach is likely better for short term traders given the move we’ve had in the past few weeks. Additionally, a lot of charts could use time to set back up again before moving higher. Bonds (TLT) saw their first potent down day in a while which gives reason for some caution here. Intermediate term trend remains intact as we are above a rising 30 and 150 day SMA, but we may see continued weakness in the coming days as we broke the 10 day and closed on the lows of the session. Global equity markets were mixed on the day with India (EPI), which looks great on the long side, led up 1.54% and Greece (GREK) lagging, down 2.4% on the day.

Sectors leading to the upside included the transports (IYT)< telecom (XTL), regional banks (KRE), social media stocks (SOCL), small caps (IWM), and financials (XLF).

Sectors lagging on the day included gold miners (GDX), gaming stocks (BJK), oil services and energy (OIH, PXJ, XLE), utilities (XLU), steel stocks (SLX), and semiconductors (SMH, SOXX).
Continue reading

ZNGA On Watch

Zynga may be setting up for a trade over the intermediate term. We’ll look at the absolute performance and sentiment to outline why the risk/reward favors the long side at current prices. Additionally, ZNGA is non-correlated with the broader market on a rolling 10 week basis, which allows you to maintain a neutral stance on the major indices but still have exposure to individual names.

ZNGA Weekly

This weekly chart shows that ZNGA is currently basing above long term support at $2.70. RSI is currently basing at support as well, as it tries to dig in a base and move higher. The next level of resistance is at $3.80 and the top of the channel which is $4.50.

Continue reading

Daily Trading Journal 8/18/14

Another gap and go to the upside for the major indices as the QQQs close at new highs and the remainder of the indices closing back above their 10/30 day SMAs. The VIX printed an inside day and the bias remains lower as long as we remain below 13.50. Bonds (TLT) closed down 1% on the day as it closed the gap lower and is pulling back into its 10/30 day SMAs. Global equity markets were largely higher on the day with Poland (EPOL) leading the winners, up 2.46% and GREK (Greece) leading lower, down 1.74%.

Sectors leading to the upside included homebuilders (XHB), steel stocks (SLX), regional banks (KRE), transports (IYT), solar stocks (TAN), retail (XRT), industrials (XLI), and small caps (IWM).

Sectors leading lower included utilities (XLU), social media stocks (SOCL), energy (XLE), telecom services (VOX), semiconductors (SMH), and coal stocks (KOL).
Continue reading

Daily Trading Journal 8/15/14

Today’s action was choppy, as we had an outside day after a gap up to start the session. Whether it was because of Ukraine / Russia news or OPEX, who really knows, but we closed off the lows and remained above the breakout range and rising 10 day SMA. The bias remains higher until that changes, though I do not expect such an easy move back to the highs. There are some gaps above that price is looking to fill and then how we react to those areas and maintain this upper range will decide whether or not we’ll see new highs. The VIX opened on the lows, on the gap up in the equity indices, and rallied back into a falling 10 day SMA only to close well off the highs, up 6%. I think the bias there remains lower as we broke through support at 13.50 and are back below falling short term moving averages. Bonds (TLT) put in a new high and closed up 1.10% on the day. Bias rmemains higher as it has for months on end now. Global equity markets were mostly down on the day with Turkey (TUR) leading the losers, down 2.16% on the day and Brazil (EWZ), leading the winners, up 2.10% on the day.

Sectors leading to the upside included oil services and energy (OIH, PXJ, XLE), large cap biotech (IBB), semiconductors (SMH), solars (TAN), shippers (SEA), large cap tech (QQQ), and utilities (XLU).

Laggards on the day included gold miners (GDX), retail (XRT), home-builders (XHB), casinos (BJK), coal stocks (KOL), regional banks (KRE), financials (XLF), telecom services (VOX), and industrials (XLI).
Continue reading

Daily Trading Journal 8/14/14

Another day of upside as the major indices continue to trade between a rising 10 day SMA and a falling 30 day SMA. Last week’s range resolved to the upside, so the bias remains higher until we see a reversal bakc below those levels. Bonds (TLT) continue to make new highs, closing at new highs today. The bias in the bond market remains higher as all the major moving averages are rising and price is trading above them. Global equity markets were mixed on the day with India (EPI), which looks awesome btw, leading by closing up 1.64% and Argentina (ARGT) lagging, down 1.91% on the day.

Sectors leading to the upside included home builders (XHB), large cap biotech (IBB), casinos (BJK), healthcare (XLV), retail (XRT), utilities (XLU), shippers (SEA) and transports (IYT).

Sectors lagging today included oil services and energy (OIH, PXJ, XLE), gold miners (GDX), steel stocks (SLX), regional banks (KRE), reits (IYR), coal stocks (KOL), and basic materials (XLB).
Continue reading