Daily Trading Journal 7/22/14

New highs for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 while the Russell 2000 tries to clear and hold above resistance at 114.65. Bias remains to the upside as we are above the 10/30 day SMAs. Bonds (TLT) saw some downside follow through but reversed intraday to make new closing highs. Price action continues to suggest that the bias remains higher above rising short and long term moving averages. High yield bonds continue to under-perform showing the risk-off type behavior we’ve seen throughout equity markets in what’s been leading/lagging. Global equity markets were mainly higher on the day with China (FXI) leading up 2.25% and Finland (EFNL) leading the losers down .90% on the day.

Sectors leading on the day included solar stocks (TAN), gaming stocks (BJK), homebuilders (XHB), large cap biotech (IBB), social media stocks (SOCL), transports (IYT), and oil services / energy (OIH, PXJ, XLE).

Sectors lagging on the day included gold miners (GDX), regional banks (KRE), retail (XRT), utilities (XLU), staples (XLP), and basic materials (XLB).
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Daily Trading Journal 7/21/14

Another inside day for the major indices, except for the Dow, which pushed lower intraday to close slightly lower on the day. We continue to hold above the 10/30 day SMAs signaling that the trend in the intermediate term remains neutral/higher despite the recent intraday volatility we’ve seen and the Russell 2000′s under-performance. Bonds (TLT) closed at new highs but printed a large topping tail that will confirm short term bearish momentum with downside follow through tomorrow, though the intermediate trend remains higher. Global equity markets were mixed on the day with Argentina (ARGT) leading the losers down 2.85% and Indonesia (IDX) leading to the upside up nearly 2% on the day.

Sectors leading on the day included gaming stocks (BJK), the IPO etf (IPO), social stocks (SOCL), semiconductors (SMH), aerospace & defense stocks and solar stocks (TAN).

Laggards on the day included telecom services (VOX), retail (XRT), consumer staples (XLP), consumer discretionary (XLY), regional banks (KRE), small caps (IWM), mid caps (MDY), and agriculture stocks (MOO).
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Daily Trading Journal 7/17-7/18/14

Friday the major indices reversed strongly to the upside after a potent down day on Thursday. The VIX got crushed, sinking 17% on the day and after a 30 some odd percentage move to the upside on Thursday. Bias remains neutral/higher in the intermediate term as we remain above the 10/30 day SMAs in the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 but short term action remains choppy as less and less stocks are participating to the upside and the Russell 2000 lags. Bonds (TLT) held higher above Thursday’s gap higher as it posted an inside day on Friday. Bias remains higher above all the key moving averages and we will likely see a break above the YTD highs of 115.19 this week. The global equity markets were largely higher on the day with Brazil (EWZ) leading up 3.35% on the day and Chile (ECH) leading the laggards down .42%.

Sectors leading to the upside included solar stocks (TAN), large cap biotech (IBB), social media stocks (SOCL), retail (XRT), healthcare (XLV), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), small caps (IWM), and steel stocks (SLX).

Sectors lagging on the day included oil services and energy (OIH, PXJ, XLE), agriculture stocks (MOO), shippers (SEA), coal stocks (KOL), gaming stocks (BJK), basic materials (XLB) and telecom services (VOX).
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Daily Trading Journal 7/16/14

Short term volatility continues in the major indices with large caps like Microsoft and Intel pushing the Dow to new highs, while the Russell 2000 continues to struggle at support. The bias in the intermediate term remains neutral/higher as we are above the 10/30 day SMAs but market breadth and quality of setups in a lot of names suggests we may see some short term weakness to give some charts time to reset. New marginal highs are possible like we’ve been seeing, but for the most part we’ve remained in a slow grind higher, which may be vulnerable as less and less stocks participate. Bonds (TLT) continued higher after testing support at 112.50 yesterday. Look for a test and breakout above the recent highs at 113.75 in the next few days. Global equity markets were broadly higher on the day with Italy (EWI) leading higher up 2.53% and Taiwan (EWT) leading the losers down 1.22% on the day.

Sectors leading to the upside included gold miners, oil services and energy (OIH,PXJ,XLE), steel stocks (SLX), semiconductors (SMH), coal stocks (KOL), and homebuilders (XHB).

Sectors lagging on the day included large cap biotech (IBB), regional banks (KRE), social media stocks (SOCL), retail (XRT), health care (XLV), small caps (IWM), solars (TAN), and financials (XLF).
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Daily Trading Journal 7/15/14

Short term volatility in the major indices continues as weakness in the Russell 2000 persists and the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 held their 10 day SMAs. For more active traders there continues to be two way action as charts reset and the major averages correct through time and in the case of the Russell 2000, through price. The intermediate trend remains neutral/higher as we remain above the 10/30 day SMA in three of the four major averages. Bonds (TLT) remains range bound as it holds above the prior breakout at 112.50. Global equity markets were largely lower on the day with Argentina (ARGT) leading to the downside -3.05% and India (EPI) leading to the upside up 1.15% on the day.

Sectors leading on the day included regional banks (KRE), financials (XLF), utilities (XLU), steel stocks (SLX), transports (IYT), industrials (XLI), and aerospace & defense stocks (PPA).

Sectors lagging today included gold miners (GDX), large cap biotech (IBB), social media stocks (SOCL), the IPO etf (IPO), small caps (IWM), consumer staples (XLP), healthcare (XLV), and homebuilders (XHB).
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