Daily Trading Journal 7/30/14

The major indices saw some intraday volatility due to the releases of economic data and the fed meeting. Surprisingly the Russell 2000 continues to hold up decently well the past few days along with the Nasdaq 100 which is consolidating above the 10 day near its YTD highs. The S&P 500 barely held the 30 day SMA and looks vulnerable to a small pullback as it continues to test trend line support and its short term moving averages are flattening / rolling over. The Dow remains the weakest of the bunch below the 30 day SMA and clinging to its short term trend line with support below it at 167.25. The spot VIX continues to base above rising short term moving averages and below resistance at 13.50. Expect a move into the mid 15s at the least once we break this level which adds to my neutral/bearish bias on the major indices in the short term. Bonds (TLT) gapped lower and closed below the 10 day SMA though support comes in around 113.85, not much lower. Intermediate term bias remains higher but in the short term we can see some digestion through time or a pull back. Global equity markets were mainly lower on the day with Turkey (TUR) leading lower down 1.95% on the day and Argentina (ARGT) and Russia (RSX) leading higher up 4.93% and 2.56% respectively. I still think that we’re likely to see some volatility and some downside the rest of the week just because of the amount of data out and also reaction moves to the Fed tend to be fake-outs.

Sectors leading to the upside included social media stocks (SOCL), IPOs (IPO), semiconductors (SMH), retail (XRT), large cap biotech (IBB), regional banks (KRE), transports (IYT) and consumer discretionary (XLY).

Sectors lagging on the day included utilities (XLU), coal stocks (KOL), gold miners (GDX), consumer staples (XLP), oil services and energy (OIH, PXJ, XLE), and solar names (TAN).
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Daily Trading Journal 7/29/14

Today the major indices saw some downside follow through after a few days of weakness and deteriorating breadth. The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 closed on the lows. The Dow closed below its 30 day, S&P 500 just above its 30 day and the Nasdaq 100 continues to hold its 10 day. The Russell 200 actually held up the best today but continues to have a negative bias until we can break above and hold 115.30 which is the top of its recent range. The Dow transports continue to show weakness, closing below the 30 day and trend line support, after momentum failed to confirm new highs in price. The VIX was up 5.75% on the day closing just below resistance at 13.50. Rounding bottom continues and a break above 13.50 will likely see the mid 15s. Bonds (TLT) closed at new highs and the bias remains higher in the intermediate term above rising moving averages. Global equity markets were mainly lower on the day with Thailand (THD) leading lower -2.36% and Argentina (ARGT) leading higher up 1.89%.

Sectors leading to the upside included telecom services (VOX), telecom (XTL), large cap biotech (IBB), social media stocks (SOCL), coal stocks (KOL), small caps (IWM), gaming stocks (BJK), and healthcare (XLV).

Sectors lagging on the day included transports (IYT), industrials (XLI), aerospace & defense stocks (PPA), utilities (XLU), solar stocks (TAN), gold miners (GDX), oil services (OIH, PXJ), and basic materials (XLB).
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Daily Trading Journal 7/28/14

The major indices saw more selling today at the open only to rebound intraday and close near the flat-line for the day. The Nasdaq 100 continues to hold above the 10 day SMA, while the S&P 500 and Dow hold on to their 30 day SMAs. The Russell 2000 held the bottom of its range at 112.25 intraday, but continues to fail to push above into the gap left above 114. The falling 10 day SMA continues to act as resistance and we may see new lows if we can’t reclaim the upper part of this range soon. Today was probably a day to cover some cute shorts as the major indices came into support and take down long exposure as we head into a likely volatile few days of economic data. Additionally, market breadth continues to be a concern, with new highs being accompanied by waning momentum and less individual stocks hitting new highs. Ultimately, price pays but given the lack of short term trade setups, it probably pays to be a little more tactical as we wait for the markets next directional move. Also, if you look at the spot VIX, we continue to build somewhat of a rounding base and holding above the 10/30 day SMAs suggesting that higher prices are likely around coming if we break above resistance at 13.50. Bonds (TLT) printed a long legged doji signaling some indecision, but still closing near the highs above rising short and long term moving averages. Intermediate trend continues to be higher until any of those conditions change. Global equity markets were mixed on the day with China (FXI) leading to the upside up 2.14% and Vietnam (VNM) leading the losers down 1.75% on the day.

Sectors leading to the upside included utilities (XLU), gaming stocks (BJK), coal stocks (KOL), base metals (DBB), social media stocks (SOCL), gold miners (GDX), reits (IYR), and steel stocks (SLX).

Laggards on the day included home-builders (XHB), transports (IYT), regional banks (KRE), large cap biotech (IBB), oil services and energy (OIH, PXJ, XLE), telecom (XTL), staples (XLP), and industrials (XLI).
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Daily Trading Journal 7/24-7/25

Friday the market gapped lower after new marginal highs intraday on Thursday. We closed off the lows with most of the major indices continuing to hold their 10/30 day SMAs signaling that the bias remains higher in the intermediate term. The Russell 2000 continues to be the laggard and the range remains 112.25-115.50, so use a break of those levels for the next directional move there. Bonds (TLT) held the 10 day SMA and gapped up to close at new highs at 115.67. Bias remains higher there as we continue to hold above the 10/30 day SMAs. Global equity markets were mixed on the day with Greece (GREK) leading higher up 1.41% and Norway (ENOR) leading lower down 2.14% on the day.

Sectors leading to the upside included gold miners (GDX), coal stocks (KOL), basic materials (XLB), regional banks (KRE), gaming stocks (BJK), and steel stocks (SLX).

Sectors lagging on the day included semiconductors (SMH, SOXX), retail (XRT), consumer discretionary (XLY), home-builders (XHB), small caps (IWM), utilities (XLU), the Dow (DIA), and aerospace & defense stocks (PPA).
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Daily Trading Journal 7/23/14

Another new high for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 while the Russell 2000 reclaims its 10/150 day SMAs and the Dow consolidates near the highs. Bias remains neutral/higher above rising short term (10/30 day) simple moving averages. Bonds (TLT) printing a dark cloud cover candle needing downside follow through tomorrow to cause short term concern, but overall bias remains higher in the intermediate term above all key moving averages. Global equity markets were mixed on the day with Vietnam (VNM) leading to the upside up 1.38% and Argentina (ARGT) leading the losers down 1.43% on the day.

Sectors leading on the day included large cap biotech (IBB), health-care (XLV), social media stocks (SOCL), energy (XLE), homebuilders (XHB), oil services (OIH, PXJ), coal stocks (KOL), and basic materials (XLB).

Sectors lagging on the day included solars (TAN), semiconductors (SMH), telecom (XTL), aerospace & defense stocks (PPA), industrials (XLI), gold miners (GDX), agricultural stocks (MOO), and shippers (SEA).
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