Trading Journal 4/22/14

The major indices continued to the upside today but closed off the highs as some selling pressure came in late in the day. Light volume continues to provide an environment for stocks to continue their grind higher as the large cap Dow and S&P 500 are nearing tests of their all time highs and small caps and tech look to test a falling 30 day SMA in the coming days. The bias remains neutral/higher though most active traders are probably staying tactical and taking some profits off their entries near last week’s pivot low. Bonds held support in the mid 109s and retook the 10 day SMA as it continues to build an upper level base above its ’14 yearly range. Global equity markets were mixed on the day with the general range being +-1%.

Leaders to the upside included solar stocks (TAN), large cap biotech (IBB), gaming stocks (BJK), retail (XRT), gold miners (GDX), healthcare (XLV), and small caps (IWM).

Laggards on the day included steel stocks (SLX), aerospace & defense stocks (PPA), coal stocks (KOL), energy (XLE), consumer staples (XLP), and industrials (XLI).
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Trading Journal 4/21/14

Stocks closed on the highs of the day with all of the major indices closing back above a 10 day SMA and adding to gains off of last week’s pivot low. The bias remains to the upside as large caps continue to lead after holding up well during the correction and light volume allows for a slow grind higher. Global equity markets were largely mixed near the flat line on the day with the two standouts being Russia (RSX) and Vietnam (VNM) which closed down 3.8% and 3% respectively. Bonds (TLT) printing an inside day but look heavy as it closed at the 10 day SMA. Below today’s low 109 is likely with a test of its rising 30 day SMA.

Leaders to the upside included large cap biotech (IBB), solar names (TAN), social stocks (SOCL), healthcare (XLV), oil service names and energy as a whole (OIH,PXJ,XLE).

Laggards on the day included steel stocks (SLX), regional banks (KRE), gold miners (GDX), utilities (XLU), financials (XLF) and agricultural names (MOO).
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Trading Journal 4/17/14

The major indices were flat to higher on the day with small caps and technology leading despite weakness in IBM and Google which likely pressured the large cap S&P 500 and Dow indexes. IWM and QQQ both put in bottoming tails and closed near the high of the week on above average volume which puts the bias back to neutral/higher but we need to see how well market breadth improves during this bounce. Global equity markets were higher across the board as well with only a few closing in the red for the day. Bonds put in a bearish engulfing candle and held the 10 day SMA as I did mention they got extended a bit yesterday. They need to build an upper level base above 109.50 to maintain bullish momentum in the short and intermediate term.

Leaders on the day included semiconductors (SMH), telecom (XTL,VOX), social stocks (SOCL), aerospace and defense names (PPA), energy (XLE), and industrials (XLI).

Laggards on the day included utilities (XLU), gold miners (GDX), solar stocks (TAN), homebuilders (XHB), real estate index (IYR), large cap biotech (IBB), and retail (XRT).
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Trading Journal 4/16/14

Another gap and go move to the upside for the major indices with tech and small caps looking to retake the 150 day and large caps leading to the upside after holding up well during the past few week’s of weakness. The S&P 500 and Dow are back above their 10/30 day moving averages while the QQQ’s and IWM look to test their falling short term moving averages tomorrow and into next week. Today’s move, although on slightly below average volume allows us to continue to build out a base off this week’s pivot low and test overhead resistance. The bias remains neutral/higher but how the market handles this bounce will determine if we have a sustainable low or if the bounce will be sold and further downside is ahead. Global equity markets were broadly higher on the day with a few exceptions, one standout being Vietnam (VNM), which closed down almost 2% on the day. Bonds (TLT) made a new yearly closing high as they build an upper level base after getting extended from its rising 10/30 day moving averages.

Leaders to the upside included solar stocks (TAN), social stocks (SOCL), large cap biotech (IBB), transports (IYT), industrials (XLI), aerospace & defense (PPA), and basic materials (XLB).

Laggards included gold miners (GDX), semiconductors (SMH), steel stocks (SLX), healthcare (XLV), and regional banks (KRE).
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Trading Journal 4/15/14

Today the major indices put in large bottoming tails on heavy volume and closed on the highs of the day. The elevation in the put/call ratio yesterday and topping tails in the vix suggest that today was the start of a bottoming process in the major indices. Although we are still below key short term moving averages, ¬†yesterdays reversals combined with today’s potent moves higher, the bias has now moved to neutral/higher. Global equity markets were largely lower on the day with the standout to the upside being Singapore (EWS) which closed up one percent, despite some intraday volatility. Bonds (TLT) are at a new high closing at 111.13 and grinding higher above rising short and long term moving averages. Large cap stocks continue to hold up better than small caps and technology at the moment and should see new highs first if this pivot low sticks.

Leaders to the upside included utilities (XLU), energy and oil service names (XLE, OIH, PXJ), healthcare (XLV), large cap biotech (IBB), financials (XLF), and transports (IYT).

Laggards on the day included solar stocks (TAN), gold miners (GDX), steel stocks (SLX), gaming stocks (BJK), coal stocks (KOL), and homebuilders (XHB).
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