Daily Trading Journal 7/28/14

The major indices saw more selling today at the open only to rebound intraday and close near the flat-line for the day. The Nasdaq 100 continues to hold above the 10 day SMA, while the S&P 500 and Dow hold on to their 30 day SMAs. The Russell 2000 held the bottom of its range at 112.25 intraday, but continues to fail to push above into the gap left above 114. The falling 10 day SMA continues to act as resistance and we may see new lows if we can’t reclaim the upper part of this range soon. Today was probably a day to cover some cute shorts as the major indices came into support and take down long exposure as we head into a likely volatile few days of economic data. Additionally, market breadth continues to be a concern, with new highs being accompanied by waning momentum and less individual stocks hitting new highs. Ultimately, price pays but given the lack of short term trade setups, it probably pays to be a little more tactical as we wait for the markets next directional move. Also, if you look at the spot VIX, we continue to build somewhat of a rounding base and holding above the 10/30 day SMAs suggesting that higher prices are likely around coming if we break above resistance at 13.50. Bonds (TLT) printed a long legged doji signaling some indecision, but still closing near the highs above rising short and long term moving averages. Intermediate trend continues to be higher until any of those conditions change. Global equity markets were mixed on the day with China (FXI) leading to the upside up 2.14% and Vietnam (VNM) leading the losers down 1.75% on the day.

Sectors leading to the upside included utilities (XLU), gaming stocks (BJK), coal stocks (KOL), base metals (DBB), social media stocks (SOCL), gold miners (GDX), reits (IYR), and steel stocks (SLX).

Laggards on the day included home-builders (XHB), transports (IYT), regional banks (KRE), large cap biotech (IBB), oil services and energy (OIH, PXJ, XLE), telecom (XTL), staples (XLP), and industrials (XLI).
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Daily Trading Journal 7/24-7/25

Friday the market gapped lower after new marginal highs intraday on Thursday. We closed off the lows with most of the major indices continuing to hold their 10/30 day SMAs signaling that the bias remains higher in the intermediate term. The Russell 2000 continues to be the laggard and the range remains 112.25-115.50, so use a break of those levels for the next directional move there. Bonds (TLT) held the 10 day SMA and gapped up to close at new highs at 115.67. Bias remains higher there as we continue to hold above the 10/30 day SMAs. Global equity markets were mixed on the day with Greece (GREK) leading higher up 1.41% and Norway (ENOR) leading lower down 2.14% on the day.

Sectors leading to the upside included gold miners (GDX), coal stocks (KOL), basic materials (XLB), regional banks (KRE), gaming stocks (BJK), and steel stocks (SLX).

Sectors lagging on the day included semiconductors (SMH, SOXX), retail (XRT), consumer discretionary (XLY), home-builders (XHB), small caps (IWM), utilities (XLU), the Dow (DIA), and aerospace & defense stocks (PPA).
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Daily Trading Journal 7/23/14

Another new high for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 while the Russell 2000 reclaims its 10/150 day SMAs and the Dow consolidates near the highs. Bias remains neutral/higher above rising short term (10/30 day) simple moving averages. Bonds (TLT) printing a dark cloud cover candle needing downside follow through tomorrow to cause short term concern, but overall bias remains higher in the intermediate term above all key moving averages. Global equity markets were mixed on the day with Vietnam (VNM) leading to the upside up 1.38% and Argentina (ARGT) leading the losers down 1.43% on the day.

Sectors leading on the day included large cap biotech (IBB), health-care (XLV), social media stocks (SOCL), energy (XLE), homebuilders (XHB), oil services (OIH, PXJ), coal stocks (KOL), and basic materials (XLB).

Sectors lagging on the day included solars (TAN), semiconductors (SMH), telecom (XTL), aerospace & defense stocks (PPA), industrials (XLI), gold miners (GDX), agricultural stocks (MOO), and shippers (SEA).
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Daily Trading Journal 7/22/14

New highs for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 while the Russell 2000 tries to clear and hold above resistance at 114.65. Bias remains to the upside as we are above the 10/30 day SMAs. Bonds (TLT) saw some downside follow through but reversed intraday to make new closing highs. Price action continues to suggest that the bias remains higher above rising short and long term moving averages. High yield bonds continue to under-perform showing the risk-off type behavior we’ve seen throughout equity markets in what’s been leading/lagging. Global equity markets were mainly higher on the day with China (FXI) leading up 2.25% and Finland (EFNL) leading the losers down .90% on the day.

Sectors leading on the day included solar stocks (TAN), gaming stocks (BJK), homebuilders (XHB), large cap biotech (IBB), social media stocks (SOCL), transports (IYT), and oil services / energy (OIH, PXJ, XLE).

Sectors lagging on the day included gold miners (GDX), regional banks (KRE), retail (XRT), utilities (XLU), staples (XLP), and basic materials (XLB).
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Daily Trading Journal 7/21/14

Another inside day for the major indices, except for the Dow, which pushed lower intraday to close slightly lower on the day. We continue to hold above the 10/30 day SMAs signaling that the trend in the intermediate term remains neutral/higher despite the recent intraday volatility we’ve seen and the Russell 2000’s under-performance. Bonds (TLT) closed at new highs but printed a large topping tail that will confirm short term bearish momentum with downside follow through tomorrow, though the intermediate trend remains higher. Global equity markets were mixed on the day with Argentina (ARGT) leading the losers down 2.85% and Indonesia (IDX) leading to the upside up nearly 2% on the day.

Sectors leading on the day included gaming stocks (BJK), the IPO etf (IPO), social stocks (SOCL), semiconductors (SMH), aerospace & defense stocks and solar stocks (TAN).

Laggards on the day included telecom services (VOX), retail (XRT), consumer staples (XLP), consumer discretionary (XLY), regional banks (KRE), small caps (IWM), mid caps (MDY), and agriculture stocks (MOO).
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